You’re just fucking with me right? You are going to bet hard earned money on the NY Giants… OK, fine with me, I’m not your wife. I just happen to think that its the dumbest thing I’ve heard since you said the Seahawks were going to cover. I’m just trying to help out here, there are FACTS that say betting on the Giants is a bad idea. This is not merely my opinion, this is not because I’m biased (which I am). This is because I honestly don’t want you to lose money this weekend. You heard me correctly, I am merely concerned that your children need those two bills more than your bookie does. Fine, fine. Put your money on the Giants, but first let me show you why you shouldn’t…
Reason #1: These teams already played each other. Did you bet on the Giants for that one? You did? Sorry guy. I guess you don’t need me to remind you that the Packers won by 23 points then.
Reason #2: Since that game the Packers have gotten significantly better through the addition of Ryan Grant. You know, the guy who made it seem like you’d win on a Seattle cover for about 15 minutes. He’s the guy who has rushed for 1130 yards from week 8 through last weekend.
Reason #3: Brett Favre went 29-38 and 3 TDs in week 2 versus the Giants. Factor in New York CB’s Ross and Madison are on the injury list and tell me how the Giants are going to cover anyone. At least answer the question for yourself, because its not my money that you’re betting.
Reason #4: Yeah yeah the Giants are 9-1 on the road, but the Packers are 8-1 at home. Let’s look deeper…The Giants went 1-5 against teams with a winning record in the regular season, and the Packers 3-1.
Reason #5: The Packers are 13-3-1 ATS for the season, compared to the Giants 12-6-0 mark.
Reason #6: Football Outsiders DVOA. Green Bay is rated at 27.3%(which is #2) and the Giants are rated at 3.4% (which is 18th). I gave you the percentage split for every week for every game since week 5, you check how many times a 20% or greater split ends with a win for the lower rated team.
Reason #7: Accuscore. Their simulations have the Packers winning 67% to NY 32%. If that’s not enough than look at their composite projections. I’m only trying to keep you from losing money. Accuscore says there’s a 40% chance the Packers win big, which is almost twice the number of close win projections for both teams combined.
Reason #8: Eli Manning is almost as likely to throw multiple interceptions (6 times this season) as he is to throw multiple touchdowns (7 times this season). Favre’s ratio? 12 multiple TD games to 6 multiple INT games.
Reason #9: “In the 37 completed seasons since the AFL-NFL merger, there have been only nine NFC Championship Games decided by seven points or fewer…” .Thats less than 1 out of 4 probability that the Giants could lose and still cover. Think about that. Also “Home teams have .662 winning percentage (49-25) in conference championship since 1970…”
Reason #10: Eli will no doubt be worn out by the DSRL events he’s scheduled to compete in on Friday and Saturday.
That’s it. No pictures. Only one joke. Ten reasons why all these people are wrong…
Also I am picking the Pats, per Rule #1 of the 2007 NFL Season. DVOA agrees with me on both, meaning our record is and will be identical after this week.