Week 16: Picks for the Homestretch

ralph

The Picks

Thursday

Pittsburgh @ St. Louis

DVOA –>PIT by 54.9%

Monkey –>I can’t say that Jackson won’t run for 100 yards this week, but I can say that even if he does, Pittsburgh still wins. Steelers by 13.

Saturday

Dallas @ Carolina

DVOA –>DAL by 56.6%

Monkey –>Also an easy game to pick. I want Dallas to lose, but after last week, I’m done picking games based on my preferred outcome. Cowboys take it by 7.

Sunday

Kansas City @ Detroit

DVOA –>DET by 2.3%

Monkey –>Detroit is in full free fall at this point, going from 6-2 to 6-8, with an 80% chance of going 6-10. Fire Millen. Detroit begs you. KC by 3.

Houston @ Indianapolis

DVOA –>IND by 39.8%

Monkey –> OK, last week I got a little excited and said that the Texans were on track to finish with a winning record. I am revising that bold stupid prediction to say that the Texans could possibly finish at 8-8. Possibly. But they don’t get there this week. Colts by 14.

Oakland @ Jacksonville

DVOA –>JAC by 47.2%

Monkey –>OK, so far 4 out of the first 5 have been huge splits. DVOA could have a huge week. Go with the team on the heavy end of the teeter totter. Jags by 21.

Green Bay @ Chicago

DVOA –>GB by 39.7%

Monkey –>Total Packer Homer making his picks. Packers get revenge here. Green Bay by 13.

NY Giants @ Buffalo

DVOA –>NY by 0.7%

Monkey –> This is the time of year when the Giants quit on Tom Coughlin. This is the time of year when Eli Manning emerges from his cocoon as a full-blown douche. This is December. Bills by 3.

Philadelphia @ New Orleansmorimoto

DVOA –>PHI by 10.2%

Monkey –> Philly is coming off a big win, and so are the fantasy team facing Brian Westbrook. New Orleans is clinging to playoff hopes. Who’s cuisine will reign supreme? Give me Iron Chef Cajun. Saints by 7.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

DVOA –>CLE by 6.4%

Monkey –> It’s a battle for in-state bragging rights. It’s a regular shootout in the making. It’s the highest scoring game of the week. I like the Bengals by 2.

Atlanta @ Arizona

DVOA –>ARI by 16.5%

Monkey –>Atlanta is so bad. They may have got better with Petrino leaving, but they still have nothing to play for. Arizona on the other hand is still technically alive in the playoff hunt, plus they’re at home. Cardinals by 14.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

DVOA –>TB by 62.6%

Monkey –>Another one with a huge DVOA split. I can’t even fathom the mind that picks the Niners. Garcia and the Bucs by 12.

Miami @ New England

DVOA –>NE by 87.4%

Monkey –>Rule #1 of the 2007 NFL Season: Never pick against the Patriots. Theory #2 of the 2007 NFL Season: Never pick the Dolphins. New England by 24. (incidentally the combined record of Rule 1 and Theory 2 is a remarkable 27-1.)

Baltimore @ Seattle

DVOA –>SEA by 26.3%

Monkey –>Why can’t Brian Billick effectively coach an offense? Is Ray Lewis secretly in charge of the team? Is Art Modell’s Karma finally haunting the Ravens? Seahawks by 17.

NY Jets @ Tennessee

DVOA –>TEN by 22.8%

Monkey –>J-E-T-S-Suck! Suck! Suck! Titans by 13.

Washington @ Minnesota

DVOA –> MIN by 10.6%
Monkey –> This one’s coming back to bite me in the ass, but here goes…I think that the Vikings, hot as they are, drink their own Kool-Aid this week and bone one. Washington wins this, and they effectively take control of the NFC playoff race, Redskins by 3.

Monday

Denver @ San Diego

DVOA –>SD by 22.2%

Monkey –> LDT should rip apart the Denver defense, it’s going to be hard to watch for 3 hours. Chargers by 14.

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