Week 15 Water Damage


Denver @ Houston

DVOA –>DEN by 11.9%

Monkey–>I like my boy Ron’s chances against the Denver run defense, and frankly I don’t think Denver has much to play for.  The Texans WILL finish the season with a winning record for the first time in their history, and they get one step closer with a home win over the Broncos, Texans by 9.


Cincinnati @ San Francisco

DVOA –>CIN by 50.7%

Monkey–>As a concerned citizen, a single mother, and taxpayer I must insist that Roger Goddell amend his decision to dock the Pats the thirty something pick, and give the Niners pick back.  That isn’t going to happen, so instead I’ll cheer for the under-dog here, although I can’t in good conscience pick the (arguably) worst team in football.  Bengals by 14.


Arizona @ New Orleans

DVOA –>NO by 3%

Monkey–> I picked the Cards to get the last wildcard spot, and I really really really want to be right about that.  I think that the Saints, who will most likely be missing Reggie Bush, will be one-dimensional, and that usually is a bad thing.  I just hope that Wisenhunt has his D up for this one.  Cardinals by 3.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh

DVOA –>PIT by 3.7%

Monkey–> This one’s tough.  Do you take the run-happy Jags, or the balanced attack of the Steelers?  Will Big Ben be able to exploit the Jag’s secondary?  Jacksonville is ranked near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed, So I answer Yes.  Factor in the fact that the Steelers are the #1 defensive team in the NFL, so I’m picking Pittsburgh by 5.

Green Bay @  St. Louis

DVOA –>GB by 61.8%

Monkey–>Well, you should see this one coming by now, Total Packer Homer takes the Packers by 14.  (Postscript – Games in St. Louis always scare the piss out of me.  Favre must get claustrophobic.)

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

DVOA –>TB by 43.9%

Monkey–> Even before Petrino earned the Worlds Most Giant Douche award I had picked the Buccaneers.  Jeff Garcia is back, Chris Redmond is starting for Atlanta, and Earnest Graham is making a name for himself. Tampa Bay by 10.

Baltimore @ Miami

DVOA –>BAL by 23.7%

Monkey–>Rule #2 of the 2007 NFL Season:  Never Pick the Miami Dolphins.  Ever.  Baltimore by 17

New York Jets @ New England

DVOA –>NE by 79.7%

Monkey–>Rule #1 of the 2007 NFL Season:  Always Pick the New England Patriots.  Always.  New England by 30.

Buffalo @ Cleveland

DVOA –>CLE by 7.3%

Monkey–> Interesting point I need to make here.  Buffalo is rated at 0.0% in the DVOA, meaning that they are the epitome of average.  However, since their bye week the Bills have gone 6-2, and Trent Edwards has been pretty good, and Marshawn Lynch is probable so I like their chances in Cleveland.  Also, the Bills won’t be put off by the weather.  I think the Browns are a little down, having lost to the Cardinals, and barely squeaked by the Jets over the last two weeks.  I’m mildly uncomfortable picking a winner, and if I was going to bet, it’d be on the over. Bills by 3.

Tennessee @ Kansas City

DVOA –>TEN by 19.4%

Monkey–> I can’t think of one good reason to believe that KC will win this game.  The Titans should play with a sense of urgency here, as their playoff lives are on the line.  TEN by 7.

Seattle @ Carolina

DVOA –> SEA by 45.9%

Monkey–> I’d rather read the Mitchell report in its entirety than watch this game.  I probably WILL read the Mitchell Report in its entirety as the Seahawks win big. ‘Hawks by 13.

Indianapolis @ Oakland

DVOA –>IND by 63.1%

Monkey–> Do I really have to tell you why? Colts by 20.

Detroit @ San Diego

DVOA –>SD by 29.5%

Monkey–> I tried to tell you that the Lions were fakers. I really did.  Fun Fact: The Detroit Lions have been in the negative DVOA range now for a good portion of the season.  I’ll take the Chargers by 9.

Philadelphia @ Dallas

DVOA –>DAL by 34.6%

Monkey–> Dallas is good, and Philadelphia is average.  If Wade Phillips is a man, then there won’t be a repeat of the Lions game, where a superior Dallas team let the opposition stick around and stink up the joint.  Cowboys by 10.

Washington @ New York Giants

DVOA –>WAS by .3%

Monkey–>Wow.  According to DVOA these two teams are within .5% of just being average.  This game is what happens when mediocrity meets unexceptional.  I’ll take the home team.  Giants by 3. (Profane Postscript:  Don’t you dare Fuck this one up, Eli)


Chicago @ Minnesota

DVOA –>MIN by 23.8%

Monkey–>This is a rivalry game, true, and it is a division game.  But there’s a catch.  Chicago is finally playing Kyle Orton.  My question is how close will it be?  Chicago wins a squeaker,  24 – 22.

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