Because we should write about what we know and I am a degenerate gambler I figure I should write about figure skating. Anyway I’m going to write about a hand of poker I played every week. Today’s hand is called “T is a luckbox”.
Background on the hand. It is a relatively loose table and I have been playing very loose with a VP$IP (voluntarily put money into pot) of a bout 47, which pretty much means I’m getting great cards and pushing the table around. There is only one weak player at the table and he is sitting two to my right with an average stack (probably $300). He is playing about 70% of hands and raising about 35%, plus he has been super-aggressive post-flop. Everyone at the table knows he is going to lose all of his money soon and they are just hoping they are the beneficiary.
On the hand in question I am on the button and the weak player makes a min-raise to $6 from middle position. I wake up with Jacks and decide for a number of reasons to just call with the Jacks. First of all the weak player most likely does not have a hand to call a re-raise with and while I could take a $10 profit with the re-raise (unless the blinds wake up with 1010+ or AQ+) I decide to trap a little and flat call, I would re-raise here 90% of the time but I’m feeling greedy and want to beat the other players to the fish’s stack. I am also doing this because I had been flat calling a lot of raises with smaller pairs and suited connectors so I occasionally like to flat with a bigger pair in position so those hands cannot be eliminated from my range in these situations. The downside of my flat call is that it really prices the big blind in and he will likely be coming along with any two, but he has been pretty tight/passive so I’ll be able to figure out if he has a hand pretty easily. To my surprise the small blind calls as well, which indicates to me likely a pair of 2’s-10’s, a suited connector, or maybe two face cards, but not a high pair or AK/AQ, which are re-raised there 100% of the time by any decent player (which the SB is).
Flop comes: Ad, Jc, Ts
Obviously a great flop for me and with any luck I can stack the fish if he is holding any ace. Unfortunately everyone checks to me. Easy decision for me, I need to lead out with my set here because there are a lot of straight draws and I can’t believe this flop didn’t hit anybody. The pot is 24 and i bet 15. The small blind calls my raise and the big blind raises 28 more. The fishes insta-folds, so much for my brilliant plan to trap the fish. What is going on?
I’m not too concerned about the small blind right now, maybe QJ, Q10, Q9 with an occasional KQ/J10 showing up would make sense but the big blind’s reraise is showing real strength, I think it’s likely he has KQ or 1010, and given that there are 16 ways for him to have kq and only 6 for him to have 1010 that makes it 72% likely he has me beat with a straight. There is also a chance he has AJ, A10, or J10, but the AJ and J10 hands would require him to have the last jack in the deck and I think he would have led at the pot with A10 because the hand is very vulnerable on this flop. So lets say those three hands make up 15% of his range, I’m still likely behind. So I decide to flat call and see if I can’t fill up on the turn.
Then the small blind pushes all in. Fuck… The big blind immediately calls behind and now I’ve got a decision to make. The SB has KQ 100% of the time here, they are a solid player and having seen raise-reraise that is 100% the only hand they make this play with. The sb’s call means it’s definitely kq/1010, I need to call $378 into a pot of 633. The break even percentage on this call is 37.3%, so I need to win 37% of the time to call. Now that I know the sb has kq, the odds have changed on the bb having kq/1010, not there are 9 ways for him to have kq and 6 ways for him to have 1010, so its exactly 60% he has kq. This matters because 10’s are outs for me if they both have KQ, but not if he has 10’s. So:
If he has 1010, I have 4 outs on the turn and 7 outs on the river, so I’m about 24% to win.
If he has KQ, I have 7 outs on the turn and 11 outs of the river, so I’m about 36% to win
36%*60% + 24%*40% = 31.2%
So I have 31.2 % equity and I need 37% to break even, so If I call my EV is -$21.92. Now unfortunately at the poker table they do not give me 10 minutes to run the numbers and I thought my equity was better than that so I called…
They both turn up KQ, and the turn brings the JH giving me quads and a $583 net on the pot. Fuck the world. So the moral of this story is that while math is all well and good in poker, and should be used to analyze your play I’m rich bitches and I just bought rock band for the 360. That game fucking rocks.