Its that general time of the week again, and I’m ready to subject myself to a severe beating at the hands of a mathematical formula. That’s right, I’ll put it out there, complicated statistics analysis made me it’s bitch.
Carolina @ Tennessee
DVOA –>Tennessee by 31.8%
Monkey –> Last year I would’ve immediately known if the headline ‘Testeverde misses practice for second straight day’ was good or bad news. This year, with David Carr as the alternative, I’m not so sure what it means. The other side to the coin is that at the end of last season I thought Vince Young was poised to have a breakout year. With the Titans ranked in the bottom five in passing offense, I’m not sure what I was thinking. And who thought that LenDale White would be having the season he is? I like the Titans at home by a field goal.
Arizona @ Tampa Bay
DVOA –> Tampa Bay by 24.7%
Monkey –> Just two weeks ago the Bucs were the “suprising upstart Buccaneers”, and today they’re the “quickly fading Buccaneers” Just two months ago the Cards were the flavor of the week to suprise everyone, and today no one is acting surprised that they will not be above .500 at the season’s midway mark. Even after disapointing me two weeks in a row, I’m picking Tampa Bay by 7. I’ll give good odds on Kurt Warner’s left arm falling off too.
Washington @ NY Jets
DVOA –> Washington by 35.3%
Monkey –> God the Jets are bad. They’ve gone beyond “Till Death” bad, beyond “The New Adventures of Old Christine” bad, beyond “Cane” bad. They are officially moving into “Dolphins North” territory. It doesn’t get any better for them this week either, because its the beginning of the Kellen Clemens era, which can only mean one thing: The Jets are officially 2 weeks away from signing Jeff George and skipping the Marques Tuiasosopo era altogether. Can’t pick against the ‘Skins here, Washington by 5.
Jacksonville @ New Orleans
DVOA –> Jacksonville by 31%
Monkey –> I was found in the alps by Quinn Gray last week, and I’ll be damned if I pick Jacksonville this week so it can happen again. But in reverse. Coach Payton may not be a genius, hell he may not even be a handsome man, but his team is on the rebound and looking for their fourth straight win. I’ll take the Saints big, make it by 14.
San Diego @ Minnesota
DVOA –> San Diego by 22%
Monkey –> The Vikings are a team with a decent defense, but an offense that’s scored less points than Chicago. That’s why Brad Childress is in the Jeff George Sweepstakes, whether he likes it or not. Talk smack about Jeff all you want Brad, but it’s all juvenile hair-pulling, because your QB of the future is fragile, your veteran backup stinks and the third stringer is Brooks Bollinger. You’d be better off starting George before he even gets to look at the playbook. I picked against San Diego last week in the face of statistics, pundits and Trevor. I got effed in the ay. To avoid that burning discomfort this week, I’m picking San Diego by 13.
San Francisco @ Atlanta
DVOA –> Atlanta by 24.4%
Monkey –> Wow. what a turd of a game. seriously. I’d be more interested by a two-pound steamer that a house-guest forgot to flush. I’m not too fond of San Francisco, but neither Harrington nor Heftwich inspire any confidence in me at all. The truth is I thought that Byron would be a good NFL QB when he was drafted, but that was so many sandwiches ago. I’ll pick the team with a running back in this one, San Fran by 5.
Green Bay @ Kansas City
DVOA –>Green Bay by 26.6%
Monkey –> Well, I’m a total Favre Mark, an irrational Packer Fan, and I usually think the Packers are going to win. Last season it was a debacle, but this season it pays to pick the Packers. Green Bay by 10.
Denver @ Detroit
DVOA –> Denver by 5.1%
Monkey –> I can’t say that I really have
much any respect for the Detroit Lions, Matt Millen, or any Detroit running back since Barry Sanders. Until recently that attitude has been the correct one, however they surprised me against the Bears – twice – as well as versus Tampa Bay. HOWEVER the teams they beat are averaging less than 3 wins at this point in the season. Let’s run down the roster, beat Chicago twice, the Vikings once, the Raiders and the Bucs. Except for Tampa none of those teams really have playoff hopes. Am I looking to hard for an excuse to pick the Broncos? Maybe I am, so here’s one. After Bly and Bailey got torched by Favre they should come into this game focused on one thing, embarrassing Jon Kitna. Kitna may put up big numbers, but it’s not because He’s Favre, it’s because he plays for Mike Martz. On the flip side of the equation (actually mathematically speaking the outcome of almost every football game is an inequality, not an equation) Denver couldn’t stop Ronnie Brown in a full leg cast from getting 100 yards on the ground. My head says PICK THE LIONS, but my gut says Denver by 3…..and that it’s time for dinner.
Cincinnati @ Buffalo
DVOA –> Cincinnati by 3.7%
Monkey –> I am officially underwhelmed just looking at the words Cincinnatti @ Buffalo. I just don’t care that much about this game, and secretly neither do you. I know the DVOA gives the slight edge to Cincy, but Marvin Lewis doesn’t seem to be the motivator he was made out to be. Bengals at 2-5?? What is this? 2002? I guess people on the coasts say that the Midwest is stuck in some kind of Time Vortex, so yeah, maybe it is. I’ll take the Bills at home by 6.
Seattle @ Cleveland
DVOA –> Seattle by 18.2%
Monkey –> Seattle. Home of Starbucks, birthplace of grunge, and perhaps the rainiest NFL city. I don’t know what’s more depressing, the city itself, or the fact that the Seahawks could limp in as a 7-9 division winner. What is happening in the “Emerald City”? Sure Big Fuzzy Mike got them to a Super Bowl, but for the most part the Seahawks have looked average, taking advantage of two franchises in San Fran and Arizona that were/are perennial losers and one franchise that’s falling by the wayside (i.e. The Rams) to win their division for most of this decade. That said, I’ll take theBrowns by 6, but by more if Jamal Lewis can get his ass on the field.
New England @ Indianapolis
DVOA –> New England by 13.6%
Monkey –> Wow. OK. I am going to stand my ground and not pick against the Pats, NE by 1. However, if I’m betting this game, I’m taking Indy and the points. Apologies to everyone in the Houston area, as you will not be seeing this game in lieu of Houston playing Oakland. How hard does that suck?
Houston @ Oakland
DVOA –> Houston by 15.3%
Monkey –>It sucks pretty hard, don’t it? DVOA says Houston, injury report says Oakland. Raiders bust the slump by 10+.
Dallas @ Philadelphia
DVOA –> Dallas by 24.6%
Monkey –> Andy Ried has to be secretly relieved that those two fuck-ups that masqueraded as doting children are now going to be butt-raped at shank-point by violent criminals. I mean, they’re finally out of the house, right? I secretly feel bad for Andy Ried for getting reamed by a judge over things like “inattentive parenting” and living in a “drug emporium” How much time do you think NFL coaches spend at home during the season? Furthermore your Honor, if the team you were coaching was 3-4 after starting the season with playoff hopes wouldn’t you want to shoot some H? I think the judge is just a disgruntled Eagles fan. Bad news for Philly fans and good news for people who like to BOO everywhere this week as Philly will get spanked by Dallas. Cowboys by 14.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
DVOA –> Pittsburgh by 29.4%
Monkey –> Damn you Baltimore. How could you lose to Buffalo? You are a bunch of expletive deleted. Baltimore can’t score points, my prediction is a simple one: Pittsburgh will keep the Ravens out of the end zone, The Baltimore D will spend 35 to 40 minutes on the field, and the Steelers will win, 24 to 12.