Tennessee @ Houston
DVOA–>TEN by 15.2%
Monkey–>Ahman Green will be back, but Andre Johnson won’t be, and that spells splendiforous for a Titan’s squad that could be without Vince Young. Kerry Collins is a fine backup, but I don’t know how much to expect from him. I’d expect him to handle the road start well, and taking all the #1 snaps in practice should help his timing with his receivers. Despite the DVOA, and despite my better judgment, I’m taking Schaub and the Texans by 3.
Baltimore @ Buffalo
DVOA–>BAL by 35%
Monkey–>I don’t think a Buffalo team without a solid starter at QB has a chance against Baltimore, be it on the road or at home. I’ll take the Ravens by 14.
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
DVOA–>TB by 49.5%
Monkey–>Will Detroit rise up against the odds and finally be a winner, or will the weight of Matt Millen’s poor draft choices smother their best efforts? I’m voting for the death of a dream this week. Jeff Garcia will have his way this week. News flash to Herbstreit: Tampa DOES have a running game and his name is Earnest Graham. Tampa by 7.
Arizona @ Washington
DVOA–>WAS by 19.2%
Monkey–>Will Kurt Warner start this week? If he does, will he last one or two quarters? Will it matter? Arizona’s rush defense is middle of the pack, and Clinton Portis could have a big week, as long as Joe Gibbs doesn’t still think Betts is as good as Clinton. Take the Skins by 3.
San Francisco @ NY Giants
DVOA–>NY by 56.5%
Monkey–>The Eli Manning hater in me wants to pick the Niners, but the brain in my head know the Giants will win because the 49er’s can’t seem to move the ball despite the best efforts of Alex Smith and Frank Gore. This is not to mention San Fran’s 21st ranked defense and New Yorks 3rd ranked offense. Giants by 10.
Atlanta @ New Orleans
DVOA–>ATL by 9.5%
Monkey–> Two teams with one win a piece. Atlanta will be starting the svelte Byron “Heftwich” Leftwich. With New Orleans at home, I have to go against the DVOA and pick NO by 6.
New England @ Miami
DVOA–>NE by 84.8%
Monkey–> Yeah. I’m not picking against New England all year. Period. Especially this week. Pats by 17.
Kansas City @ Oakland
DVOA–>KC by 25.6%
Monkey–> Kansas City surprised me last week, and Oakland disappointed me like your stripper daughter disappointed Nana at Christmas dinner last week. I know that an irrational hope for vengeance against the Al Davis Raiders isn’t a good reason to pick the Chiefs. So I’ll use the DVOA. KC by 7.
NY Jets @ Cincinnati
DVOA–>CIN by 27.3%
Monkey–>God, I’m glad I don’t have to watch this game on Sunday. I don’t know what the Jets need, but it sure isn’t Clemens. By the Way, How does Thomas Jones not have a TD yet? As bad as Cincinnati punked me last week, I pick them again, but if they lose, I’ll beat the crap out of Ashton. Cincinnati by 7.
Minnesota @ Dallas
DVOA–>DAL by 30.3%
Monkey–> Adrian Peterson carried the Vikings last week on the road, but don’t expect a repeat of that in Dallas. Wade Phillips tried to make Tom Brady beat him last week, and that backfired. If he wants to win this week, he’ll try to make Tavaris Jackson beat him. The Vikings are ranked 28th in passing offense this year. I’m taking Dallas by 14.
Chicago @ Philadelphia
DVOA–>PHI by 35.6%
Monkey–> Which teams show up today? In a match-up of two Jekell and Hyde teams how do you pick a winner? I’m anticipating a low scoring affair, but with Donovan McNabb, you never know what will happen. The same is said about Brian Griese, but not in the good way people say it about McNabb. I’ll take the relatively healthy 1st string Philly offense to get the Eagles back to .500 this week. Philly by 10.
St. Louis @ Seattle
DVOA–>SEA by 35.9%
Monkey–>Seattle’s offense lacks a certain something…a je ne sais quoi…which is better than St. Louis’s c’est la vie, we don’t care about sucking, patented Scott Linehan offense. Seattle by 7.
Pittsburgh @ Denver
DVOA–>PIT by 58.2%
Monkey–> I feel wary when the DVOA seems to be a much larger gap than Ithought there would be. Is Denver really that bad? They have a middle of the pack offense that desperately needs to move past the whole Travis Henry suspension thing. Too bad they’ll wait to start Selvin Young until they have to. Denver has a below average defense, which desperately needs to stop the run(they’re 31 out of 32) Look for Mike Tomlin to pound the ball, and the Steelers to win, Pittsburgh by 10.
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
DVOA–>IND by 35.1%
Monkey–>This game should be much better than last weeks MNF. Jacksonville and Indy both have good run and pass defenses, both teams can run the ball, but Jacksonville has a sub-par passing game. It could be that the Jag’s running game is all they need, so they don’t pass, or that they rely on the run because they don’t trust David Garrard. I don’t expect Indy’s defense to hold Jacksonville to ZERO big plays, and I fully anticipate that Jacksonville will lead the T.O.P. column at the end of the game, but I think Peyton Manning will be the difference in the final Score Indy 34 — Jags 28.