Here are the Monkey’s week Six Picks, along with a percentage that represents the difference in team Overall DVOA, as provided online by The Football Outsiders
MIN @ CHI
DVOA–> MIN by 37.7%
Sorry Football Outsiders, but I don’t think so. Both teams have bad QBs, but Kelly Holcomb on the road? I wouldn’t buy that if it was encrusted with precious gems. I’m kind of expecting a repeat of MIN @ KC. You remember that game, right? CHI by 5
MIA @ CLE
DVOA –> CLE by 2%
I expect J-Lew to be big against a Dolphins defense that seems to have lost a few steps. Derek Anderson should have success through the air if the Browns can establish the running game. Cleo Lemon will sabotage the best efforts of Ronnie Brown, CLE by 4
WAS @ GB
DVOA –>GB by 3.6%
James Jones cost the Packers a 5-0 record last week, and I’ll bet anything that Mike McCarthy spent a good deal of Tuesday, Wednesday and today on ball security. He’ll probably emphasize it tomorrow as well. I think it will carry over to Sunday. As high as I was on Jason Campbell last week, I don’t think Clinton Portis and Randle-El (who’s listed as questionable – hamstring ) will be enough weaponry to defeat Green Bay at home. GB by 9
CIN @ KC
DVOA –> CIN by 20.4%
Wow. the DVOA split on this one looks pretty big. Cincinnatti coach Marvin Lewis needs to win this game to get out of the basement. If the 1-3 mark doesn’t improve, he’ll have a hard time finishing the season with a winning record, although not all the Bengals critics deserve to be taken seriously his defense needs to live up to expectations. Herman Edwards needs to win this week too, as all 4 teams in the AFC West have two wins (click here for proof that Herm still has some support in KC). Cincinnati has too many talented players at skill positions for the Chiefs to defend them all, but on the other side of the coin, The Bengals haven’t played very good defense either, and the KC offense has the potential to put up a lot of points. I would bet the over-under, but not the outcome. Even though I just wrote that, I’ll pick the Bengals by 3.
TEN @ TB
DVOA –>TB by 8%
I’ll won’t hate on Earnest Graham. Really, not this week. I’m just going to say that his backup Darby can handle 5-10 rushes because there’s no way Zack Crockett will be able to pick up any slack this week. I think Jeff Garcia will play well, and Monte Kiffin’s Defense (that’s right, it merits Capital Letters) will give Vince Young all he can handle. I think they have the speed to beat Tennesse. Bucs by 6.
STL @ BAL
DVOA –> BAL by 49.7%
What will be the most painful portion of this game for St Loius fans to watch? Will it be the absence of Steven Jackson? Will it be Gus “Mullet Rockin'” Frerotte under center? Will it be Linehan’s playcalling? It’ll probably be all of the above on the Rams first offensive play. Ravens by 14.
HOU @ JAC
DVOA –>JAC by 11.5%
Headline reads: Houston Natives to Lick Schauballs. If the 85 Bears taught us anything, its that an awful music video should feature the PLAYERS rapping. Where’s Jim McMahon when you need him? Andre and Ahman will likely not be around for this one and that spells bad news for Matt Schaub. On the road, missing key offensive starters, this will be a test the Texans fail. The fact that Jacksonville signed John Carney to sub for an injured Scobee should reassure nervous Jags fans. JAC by 5.
PHI @ NYJ
DVOA –> PHI by 47.1%
Which Philly team will show up this week? How will the Jets cope with injuries to their WR corp and QB? Where does Andy Reid get his mustache wax? These questions and others will be on my mind Sunday. The DVOA says blowout, I say Nay, begone ye nascent aristarch, and trouble mine ears no more. The New York Jets of New Jersey get it together this week, and keep it close. Philly wins on an Akers FG as time expires. Eagles by 3.
CAR @ ARI
DVOA –>ARI by 34%
Dear Carolina Fans,
Heres a list of things to do in your lovely state on the weekends this October. I know if I were you, I wouldn’t want to watch this game. I thought it was joke at first too. Just promise me you’ll hate on the GM, and not Vinny. He can’t help it that hes 43. I just hope that you’re at the Farm Festival USA when Vin has every bone in his body broken by a 300 lb DE. Do I have to be the one to ask Marty Hurney why he didn’t offer that one-year deal to Terry Bradshaw?
Arizona by 12.
OAK @ SD
DVOA –>SD by 24%
I think I’ll point out that Culpepper should have been the week one starter in Oakland, and that the DVOA is skewed by Josh ‘Whoopsie’ McCown was actually playing. In games. For a professional team. This is a former Matt Millen free agent signing we’re talking about. Anyway…An Oakland defense with 8 interceptions already this season could have a big day against Phillip Rivers, who has already thrown 6. Factor in Norv Turner, and I say the Raiders win by 6.
NE @ DAL
DVOA –> NE by 31.3%
This is definitely the game of the week, and I could compare and contrast these two unbeaten teams all day long. But I won’t. When all is said and done it could certainly be the closest game the Pats have played this year, and the Cowboys could even pull the upset, but I need to go back to what I said about NE last week. I am not picking against the Patriots all year (unless Brady, Moss, and the entire defense line end up on the DL. Or they play the Packers in the Super Bowl.) so there it is: Pats by 3.
NO @ SEA
DVOA –>SEA by 52.6%
Will THIS be the week NO gets its S#!% together? Did I ask that same question last week? How many weeks will I ask if this is the week? Probably all season. Seattle by 10.
NYG @ ATL
DVOA –> NYG by 22.2%
This game has the potential to be lopsided. Plaxico Burress could get further under DeAngelo Hall’s skin than Steve Smith. Atlanta is plagued by problems, the least of which is Warrick Dunn becoming eligible for Social Security at the end of this month. Joey Harrington is still your QB, and Rich McKay is still the GM. Giants 27 — Falcons 9