NFL Sunday recap, My picks vs DVOA, a few thoughts….

So through Sunday I finish at 9-4, with the DVOA predictions coming in at 11-2. The biggest surprise was Denver laying an egg at home, followed closely by the Packers fumbling twice in the 1st quarter to give away TD chances and a win. The Bears should’ve lost that game big, but a rookie makes rookie mistakes, and the refs help out (seriously, illegal formation on Defense? Overturning 12 men on the field? What, you can’t count? Ref #20 is officially the anti-Ed Hochuli. I’m also not suprised that he is head of Crew ‘F’) So I was way wrong about Seattle too. I predict a squeaker, and they get shut down 21-0. Also, Jon Kitna underwhelmed even me this week, finishing with 16 completions for 106 yds. Picking against the Jaguars was a bad idea for me. I guess I thought that Herm would motivate his guys this week, what a disappointment to only score 7 points. But that’s what you get when your head coach doesn’t know how to use the internet.

Football Outsiders is one of my favorite sites. They break down statistics in a way previously reserved for baseball, and one way they do that is with DVOA, or Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average. Now then this stat should tell you who the better team is and with that in mind, I’ve decided to use that stat, and that stat only in a little thing I’m going to call: DVOA Right In.

To dive right into DVOA Right In, I’m comparing what actually happens in this weeks games to the winner as predicted by the higher DVOA. (Note: This may be slightly esoteric.)

MIA @ HOU
DVOA says –> HOU
My Pick –>HOU (by 7)
Reality –>Houston 22 – Miami 19

 

JAC @ KC
DVOA says –> JAC
My Pick–> KC (by 3)
Reality –> Jacksonville 17 – Kansas City 7

 

CLE @ NE
DVOA says –> NE
My Pick –> NE (by 14)
Reality –>New England 34 – Cleveland 17

 

CAR @ NO
DVOA says –> CAR
My Pick –>CAR (by 6)
Reality –>Carolina 16 – New Orleans 13

 

NYJ @ NYG
DVOA says –> NYG
My Pick–>NYG (by 10)
Reality –>Giants 35 – Jet 24

 

SEA @ PIT
DVOA says –> PIT
My Pick–>SEA (by 1)
Reality –>Pittsburgh 21 – Seattle 0

 

ARI @ STL
DVOA says –>ARI
My Pick–>ARI (by 8 )
Reality –>Arizona 34 – St. Louis 31

 

DET @ WAS
DVOA says –>WAS
My Pick –>WAS (by 7)
Reality –>Washington 34 – Detroit 3

 

ATL @ TEN
DVOA says –> TEN
My Pick –>TEN(by 14)
Reality –>Tennessee 20 – Atlanta 13

 

TB @ IND
DVOA says –> IND
My Pick –> IND (by 5)
Reality –>Indianapolis 33 – Tampa Bay 14

 

SD @ DEN
DVOA says –> DEN
My Pick –>DEN (by 10)
Reality –>San Diego 41 – Denver 3

 

BAL @ SF
DVOA says –> BAL
My Pick –>BAL (by 3)
Reality –>Baltimore 9 – San Francisco 7

 

CHI @ GB
DVOA says –> GB
My Pick –>GB (by 8 )
Reality –>Chicago 27 – Green Bay 20

So, through most of week 5, my record with no-line picks is 48-27. We’ll be doing me vs DVOA for the rest of the season, so here are those standings after week 5:

Monkey 9 – 4
DVOA 11 – 2

Week 5 to be played:

DAL @ BUF
DVOA says –> DAL
My Pick –>Cowboys 34 – Bills 23
Reality –>hasn’t happened yet, genius.

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One Response to NFL Sunday recap, My picks vs DVOA, a few thoughts….

  1. OMAR says:

    Yes, Football Outsiders is one of the best. Hope to see you continue with your work using DVOA as a predictor. Good stuff.

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